Does Acquiring 8-Time All-Star Nolan Arenado Make Sense For Toronto Blue Jays?

On Friday, it was reported that the St. Louis Cardinals are going to gauge trade interest in third baseman Nolan Arenado this offseason.

Arenado has three years and $74 million left on his contract. The Rockies owe him $10 million of that, making the deal effectively three years and $64 million for any acquiring team.

Out of pure speculation, MLBTradeRumors linked Arenado to the Blue Jays in a recent article.

While a trade of Arenado is far, far from a sure thing, there are plenty of teams who’ll be in the mix for third base help. The Yankees, Mariners, Astros (if Alex Bregman leaves), Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals all have reasonably straightforward vacancies at the position.

And that is true. If the Jays continue to use Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base, they do have an opening at third. The question then becomes if acquiring Arenado makes sense for Toronto.

And that answer is no. At least not under these circumstances.

First, Arenado is about to be 34 years old. If the Jays are going shell out big money this offseason, they should be focusing on Juan Soto. If they can’t get him, then they should be focusing on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker while moving Guerrero Jr. to third. They’ve been connected to Ha-Seong Kim, who would be a better use of resources and would cost a lot less.

Heck, old friend Teoscar Hernandez, also in his 30s, would be a better match for Toronto. He and Soto are coming off incredible years, while Arenado is coming off the worst overall year of his career.

Arenado’s contact skills remain excellent, but even the 15.5% strikeout rate he’s posted since 2023 is up from the 13.2% rate he posted in the four preceding seasons. He’s never been one to walk at an especially high clip, but Arenado drew a free pass in 9.1% of his plate appearances from 2016-22 — compared to just 6.8% in 2023-24. This past season’s average exit velocity (86.3 mph), barrel rate (3.2%) and hard-hit rate (31.2%) were all well shy of league-average and easily career-low numbers.

He had just 16 homers this season to go along with 71 RBI. Arenado hit just .272.

Still, he’s one of the most accomplished players of the last decade. An eight-time All-Star, he’s also a 10-time Gold Glover and a five-time Silver Slugger.