When the St. Louis Cardinals acquired Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies in February 2021, he was overjoyed to finally join a consistent winner. Now, as the Cardinals shift directions and contemplate trading Arenado, the 10-time Gold Glove-winning third baseman is willing to play first base, or at least less at third, to create roster flexibility for a potential new team, league sources briefed on his situation say.
The Cardinals are in an unconventional offseason, at least for their standards. For the first time in long-time president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s 17-year tenure, the Cardinals are taking a step back and will use the 2025 season as an organizational reset.
Of all the impending decisions Mozeliak must now consider, the most pressing is what to do with his third baseman.
The Cardinals have been exploring Arenado’s potential trade market for weeks. Those conversations, preliminary in nature, have yet to yield any substantive progress. Still, a few teams have expressed initial interest, per a league source. As the winter meetings approach, talks are likely to intensify, and there is a growing sense throughout the industry that Arenado will be on the move.
The plan to trade Arenado dates to the end of the season. With a change in the organization’s operations on the horizon, Mozeliak met with Arenado in late September and explained the team’s strategy was shifting. According to multiple league sources, Arenado and Mozeliak were open to the possibility of a potential trade this winter. Arenado did not demand a trade but was agreeable to the idea when approached by Mozeliak.
NOLAN ARENADO WALKS IT OFF WITH A GRAND SLAM!!!! #STLCards pic.twitter.com/Op1AKwiVxw
— FanDuel Sports Network Midwest (@FanDuelSN_MW) August 22, 2024
That the Cardinals have looked into trading Arenado is not necessarily surprising. Mozeliak, entering his final year as head of the organization, has made it clear that the focus in 2025 will be on developing young players. This will be in both the majors and minors, and will also include revamping the organization’s player development system. Cutting payroll and redirecting some funds to the team’s farm system will also be a factor. It’s a vastly different scenario from where the club was when Arenado decided to opt in for the remainder of his eight-year, $260 million contract shortly after the end of the 2022 season.
St. Louis is willing to temporarily concede putting winning at the forefront and instead prioritize consistent playing time for its emerging young core. When Arenado turned down his final opt-out clause, he did so under the impression that St. Louis would continue competing for postseason berths, and ultimately a World Series title. Instead, the Cardinals posted their worst season in 30 years in 2023 and missed the playoffs for the second straight year in 2024.
Mozeliak has said multiple times throughout the offseason that creating avenues for some of the team’s younger players to play every day would be a primary focus. An opening at third base could see Brendan Donovan move to the infield more consistently. Nolan Gorman, who came up through the Cardinals’ system as a third baseman, could also see time at the hot corner, as could Thomas Saggese, should he make the Opening Day roster.
St. Louis would presumably target prospects or young players with considerable amounts of remaining control as the return for Arenado, which would help supplement a farm system the organization has been actively trying to rebuild.
This of course does not guarantee Arenado will be traded. The Cardinals’ efforts to move the eight-time All-Star will be complicated by his full no-trade clause, and also by the money remaining on his deal. Arenado is owed $74 million over the next three seasons; $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027. There are built-in deferrals through 2041, and the Rockies will also pay $5 million of his salary in 2025. The Cardinals likely would resist eating significant money in a trade, but potential suitors might resist giving up better talent if they could not acquire Arenado at a discounted rate.
Arenado will turn 34 in April and his offensive decline over the past two seasons concerns some in the industry, though his defense remains superior. Per multiple league sources, he will also only waive his no-trade clause for an organization set up to contend for multiple seasons. This should hardly come as a surprise, as Arenado has played in just eight postseason games in his career and has been very candid about his desire to play meaningful baseball in October.
One of the best to ever do it.
Congratulations to Nolan Arenado on yet another selection as a @RawlingsSports Gold Glove Finalist!#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/iuxxiZ7GvW
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) October 15, 2024
How Arenado’s availability will impact the market is not yet clear. Outside of Alex Bregman, the third-base options available via free agency are lacking. The first-base class is headlined by Pete Alonso, followed by Christian Walker, Anthony Rizzo and former teammate Paul Goldschmidt. This would suggest Arenado’s willingness to play first base would likely only be a factor for teams who already have a third baseman locked up for the considerable future.
It’s fair to expect industry gridlock until superstar free agent Juan Soto signs with a team. Further clarity about Arenado’s market might take longer, at least until the markets for Bregman and shortstop Willy Adames become established. However, sources familiar with the situation believe the Cardinals will begin to pursue a trade more aggressively come the winter meetings, which are scheduled to begin on Dec. 9 in Dallas.
Mozeliak will not trade Arenado solely for the sake of moving him. Any potential return would have to make sense for the Cardinals’ short-term and long-term plans. This will not be a salary dump. Both the team and player are specific in what they are looking for, and what they will or will not concede in a deal. Still, as St. Louis looks to prioritize its youth, and Arenado’s desire to return to October grows, a trade could be the best-case scenario for both sides.
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